Tuesday, May 3, 2011
This article was interesting, in that it gave strong evidence for trusting Krugman when he makes predictions about the economy. I also found it interesting that lawyers were worse prognosticators than other professionals. However, the liberal-means-right thing is very clearly biased by the time-frame and nature of the predictions studied. All of the predictions came out of the period of time immediately before the 2008 elections, and many of them directly related to election outcomes. Liberals were therefore far more likely to be good predictors merely because their side happened to win that time. I'd love to see a similar study over a longer timeframe and including multiple changes in party power.